Overlord is one of those anime series where a character gets stuck in another world. But interestingly this other world is of a game in the protagonist’s real world. The thing that makes Overlord so great is that the main character in it is really OP (overpowered). So the big question fans have been asking is there really going to be Overlord Season 4 in 2020.
Without the chance to see the Season 4 of the series, fans never get to know if the character Ainz gets to conqueror the entire world of Yggdrasil or if someone stronger than him is going to appear and stop him. All of these and other such questions can only be answered with a sequel or reading the original source material. The source material, in this case, is light novel but most fans bear the wait to continue the story with a sequel season. Now the problem at hand is that there is actually no official news or a minor rumor about there being Overlord Season 4.
Figuring Out If There Will Be “Overlord Season 4”?
We have a habit of watching different kinds of anime series and like to deduce with a certain method as if there will be a sequel or not. The method we have been using is the one that has proven great for many years now. This method uses the popularity graph, source material information, and sales & profit records to deuced the possibility of a sequel at 95 percent. We applied this same method with Overlord to check if there is a possibility for Season 4 or not. Now let us get on with this method to check the possibility for a sequel.
Source I: Material Information for “Overlord Season 4”:-
There are lots of different anime series of different genres these days. Most of these anime series make use of the source material that is already present for many years. This source material can be in form of light novel, games, or manga series. As for the case of Overlord anime, this source material is a light novel.
Now, we will see as to how many volumes of the Overlord light novel have been released so far and if the story is still in continuation. If this story is already concluded then the chances for a sequel look grim.
There is also a chance that the story is still in its middle stages and such series have a much greater chance of getting a sequel. An example of this is Classroom of the Elite Season 2 which has greater chances for a sequel season.
Another thing of importance here is to see as to how many of the volumes for the light novel were used in Overlord Season 1 to Season 3. There can be a scenario where there is not enough source material for Overlord Season 4 like in the case of No Game No Life Season 2.
How many volumes of Overlord light novel are there?
In Japan, so far, 14 volumes of the Overlord light novel have been released. The success of the light novel led to the creation of the Overlord manga series. As for this manga of Overlord, it currently has 13 published books.
Is it still ongoing?
The good news for all the fans is that the Overlord light novel and manga is still in continuation. The latest volume was released by author named “Kugane Maruyama” back on 12th March 2020. The author has a release date of one volume per year from 2017 to 2020. Although, the author has said in the discord that he is soon going to be finished with book 17. So, fingers crossed about having a lot more to read in the coming years.
Which light novels does the anime cover?
The production committee for Overlord anime made use of 3 light novel volumes per season. This means that they have already exhausted 9 volumes worth of source material for 3 seasons. This means that the Overlord Season 4 will be starting from volume 10 if they are not planning to cover the info of the previous 3 seasons they have skipped.
With the amount of source material at hand, the production house “madhouse” has enough to complete one more season of Overlord for 2020. The hopes for the series’ continuation in that regard still look positive.
Source II: Information on Sales & Profit for “Overlord Season 4”:-
So far, the Overlord franchise has already given fans 3 of the great seasons. This makes one thing clear that the sales are good to back one project after another. The problem that arises is that with each passing season, the amount of profit that comes in get less and less. There are cases here the profits tend to reach 15 to 25 percent of what the Season 1 delivered and the series gets dropped.
Now we will check as to how well the Season 2 and 3 of this franchise performed to bring in profits. If the drop rate of profits is immense then the chances for the sequel’s hope look bleak. An example of it is the series Noragami which never got its Noragami Season 3.
The Overlord Season 1 was a massive hit with nearly 12500+ copies sold. The Overlord Season 2 show a decline in those sales with a figure of mere 7000 copies sold and finally, the Overlord Season 3 had a sale of only 6500 copies.
This drop rate for Blu-ray sales, on one hand, seems reasonable as people are opting to buy less and less of DVDs much less expensive Blu-ray disks. For 2018, we would say the number of 6500 is still a plus point, despite the drop being 40 percent of first-season sales.
We say this because in 2020, most anime series struggle to even have a chance of 200 copies sale rate. This is even in the case of series like One Punch Man. Still, there will definitely be One Punch man Season 3 as the online streaming platforms are replacing these Blu-ray sales.
Light Novel sales:
On the sales end, the most shocking aspect of Overlord is its light novel sales. Overlord, currently, sits at the spot of number 2 of highest selling light novel of its genre for its every released volume. The light novel succeeding it for first place is Sword Art Online. Each volume of this series has a sale rate of average 200000 copies per volume.
Volume 13 of Overlord light novel has a sale of 235000 copies with the recent volume 14 having sales of 195000 copies. After that it disappeared from the Top 10 sale rankings. Although being a series with one of the highest-selling ones for each volume is nice, we are talking about the release rate of one volume for a year.
There are popular light novel series like Goblin Slayer and Wise Man’s Grandchild with a release rate of 4 and 2 for each year. A fun fact here is that, Overlord still has highest number of sales despite combining sales of these two novels. His raises question for future of Kenja No Majo Season 2 and Goblin Slyer Season 2.
For fan service, creators have released 20 figurines of the Overlord franchise and all of them are of character Albedo with few for Ainz and only one for character Evil Eye, Shalltear, and Narberal. Other than that there are also small 250 merchandise items up for grabs.
For such a series with 3 seasons, we expected the number of these items to be quite higher. In comparison to the Konosuba Season 3, they already have around 90 figurines and 1000 other seller items.
The Overlord Season 1 got 50 percent of these items as compared to Overlord Season 2 and Overlord Season 3.
Overlord also happens to have a mobile game by the name Mass for the Dead. The game is only available for playing in USA and Japan. This game is also a massive hit among fans of the series with the revenue reaching 500000 dollars from its total sales until March 2020.
As for PC or console game, like in the case of Accel World, Overlord never got such a thing and that is a shame. It would have been so great to play as the character Demiurge and Ainz who are also character in a game world; kind of feel like a spinoff the movie “Inception”. As for Accel World, we are still not sure if the game will increase its prospects for Accel World Season 2.
The above-stated information is only a few of the crucial ones for knowing if a series is going well or not. We won’t be posting all of these revenue streams here but will still tell you what they are. They are mostly OST, opening & ending songs, mobile games, web radio, streaming license for Funimation and Crunchyroll, sales from manga series, and others.
To sum it all up, we would say that the profits of the franchise until Season 3 look promising. While they are decreasing with each season, they are still more than enough for making true Overlord Season 4.
Source III: Information on Popularity of “Overlord Season 4”:-
We are also interested in checking as to how well the popularity graph of the Overlord is still holding up after all these years. This means that we will now be diving in to see the franchise’s official website, their social media accounts, Google trends, print copies, and news about release of new merchandise. Sequels tend to be less popular when compared with their first season.
We do admit that Overlord was once a really popular series with the potential to deliver 2 or 3 more seasons. Still, let us browse this section deeply.
The official website for this franchise had its last update back in 2019. The news was about the release of volume 14 of Overlord light novel. As for their official Twitter handler, it has roughly 103K followers with the last tweet made back on April of 2020 for the rebroadcasting of Overlord.
Shockingly enough, the popularity for Overlord Season 3, from Google trend, was by far the highest. It even has twice the amount of searches as compared to searches of Overlord Season 1. This is shocking because sequels tend to drop in popularity.
As per the official records by the end of 2018, there have 8 million print copies for Overlord light novel. The latest volume 14 was released only a short while ago in 2020. Despite the release rate being slow, the light novel is immensely popular among the fans.
The release of new merch items is an indicator about the positive growth of any anime franchise. Saying this, Overlord got its 3 new figurines only a little while ago. They now have keychains and T-shirts as well ready for pre-orders in 2020.
What we can conclude from this section is that Overlord is still a lively series. The social media presence and popularity of it are all at their peak and that is without the need to mention the promotion that Isekai Quartet is getting these days. We would be wrong to say that fans are not eagerly waiting for Overlord Season 4 and future seasons.
The Big Reveal for “Overlord Season 4”:-
There does not seem to be any reason which indicates that there will not be Overlord Season 4 very soon. All the aspects for a great anime series are doing fine for Overlord. It has enough source material for a sequel season. We would certainly not be shocked to see that Overlord Season 4 gets announced either by the end of 2020 or early in 2021. Still, keep on checking back here to see the official announcement about Overlord Season 4.
Ref : Overlord season 04 in Next Anime Season